Sunday column: Will we matter in May?

If I were a betting man, my money would be on Barack Obama and John McCain having well wrapped up their presidential nominations by the May 6 primary in North Carolina.
This means Hillary Clinton (who’s looking more and more like a kicked puppy with each loss) will have officially pulled off the biggest choke job since the 1992-1993 Houston Oilers, and Mike Huckabee will have graciously accepted the vice presidential invitation from McCain.
It also means, unfortunately, that North Carolina’s 134 delegates will have a pre-determined home, and more voters may choose to stay home rather than head to the polls anyway and decide on a number of important state and local races (and referendums).
But let’s play make-believe here and let’s pretend that Clinton’s found her own “It’s the economy, stupid” moment and mounted a comeback over Obama with wins in either Ohio, Texas or Pennsylvania. Let’s pretend Texas’ evangelicals came out in record numbers (there are lots of them … I used to live there) and gave Huckabee an improbable boost.
Suddenly, North Carolina — which votes the same day as Indiana, a full two weeks after Pennsylvania — is in the spotlight. Of all the states left in May and June, North Carolina by far has the most delegates of the remaining batch (Indiana has 84, and Oregon, which votes May 20, has 65) and in a close race, it becomes one of the final battlefields.
This means for the two weeks following Pennsylvania, cities like Sanford could have a candidate or two in its back yard. Could you see Obama shaking hands at the Pottery Festival? How about McCain having breakfast at the Dairy Bar … Clinton speaking to workers at a local industry … Huckabee milling about the local congregations on a Sunday morning.
It could happen. It happened in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and you’re seeing it happen now in Texas and Ohio, which vote on March 4.
As a journalist and as somebody very interested in the intricacies of politics (it’s more interesting to me how people get votes rather than what they do once elected), having an important presidential primary in North Carolina would be a dream.
Ahhh, but like I said earlier, this is all make-believe. If I were in Vegas, my guess would be this isn’t going to happen.
On the Democratic side, Obama’s campaign has run like a well-oiled machine. Once it survived Super Tuesday, there was no stopping it. Clinton’s people, on the other hand, didn’t expect there to be a race after Super Tuesday, and the fundraising has fallen just as quickly as her numbers in the polls.
Obama has the good looks and the charm, and I’ve never seen anybody give a 30-minute speech so eloquently and still manage to keep voters in the dark about what he’d do if elected. Clinton, meanwhile, has not been able to hide her frustrations the past month, and each time she’s fired a campaign official or teared up in an interview, it’s hurt her chances of getting elected.
I’m not saying I like or dislike either candidate, and I can appreciate the history that will go into having the country’s first black or female president. The history aspect makes it an uphill climb for either McCain or Huckabee on the Republican side (just ask John Edwards).
McCain comes off as the candidate who’s most suited to just step into office and know what to do, and he’s a likable enough guy. But he doesn’t have the charisma or the ability to excite voters like Obama. Huckabee’s everybody’s favorite underdog, but I’m afraid he would be drubbed by Obama if he was the GOP’s choice.
There’s so much to talk about, so much to speculate on and so much potential if North Carolina can still make a difference in the big race once May rolls around.
It’s just too bad it’s not going to happen.
Sigh … I guess there’s always a sales tax to talk about.